BC Data Report on population growth notes of coming surge in residents for British Columbia by 2046; but few of them apparently heading the way of Prince Rupert

British Columbia's Projected Population change from 2022-2046
Map from BC Data Report

Those forecasts from Prince Rupert civic officials of a population of 24,000 residents by 2030 may need a new a review and an eraser. 

That at least if the latest population forecasts from BC Data holds true to its predictions for 2046.

The population of British Columbia as of today is noted as 5.5 million, that will jump to just under 8 million in the next 22 years.

The report released this week notes that while all of British Columbia will see some in migration as we reach 7.9 million, the moving vans will largely be heading the way of the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island regions.

British Columbia’s population is anticipated to reach 7.9 million (+49%2) in 2046. While population is anticipated to increase across all of British Columbia’s development regions, growth will be concentrated in the Lower Mainland/Southwest region, which is projected to reach a population of 4.9 million in 2046 (+51%). Growth will continue to be driven almost entirely by migration.

Few of those 3.5 million newcomers on the way however seem destined for the Northwest region.

For the North Coast the report notes of a Population growth for Prince Rupert of a more modest number of 4,081 new neighbours to come by 2046, which would make our population 17,253 an increase of 31% from today 

BC Data notes that the current population level for Prince Rupert is 13,172 as of 2022, that still a positive trend from the free fall numbers of just a few years ago.

Across the Northwest, Terrace will continue to dominate the population growth listings, the forecast for the Skeena Valley Hub City is for a population of 19,268 by 2046 a population spike of 44 percent from today.

Kitimat will see a jump to 10,743 by 2046, Smithers is anticipated to see 30 percent growth with a population. of 7,444 by 2046.

 

The full BC Data report on population growth and a range of factors and observations related to it can be explored here.

The number from Data BC make for a less enthusiastic account of population growth from that of the Prince Rupert Vision plan presentation from 2019  

That information December session at the Lester Centre hosted by then Mayor Lee Brain and featuring Urban Planner Larry Beasley had estimated a population of 24,000 residents by the end of this decade. 

The themes presented that night highlighting a range of elements that would transform the city with the growth that was anticipated.

You can review the Prince Rupert blue print of the future here.

The progress towards some of those initiatives can be reviewed for our 2030 Vison Tracker archive page.

As part of the focus on that goal, an ambitious recruitment program Prince Rupert Make it Home was launched in 2021 to introduce the North Coast to those that may be looking to relocate.

The Make it Home website offers a look at what the community has to offer as well as current career opportunities in the area.

Social media Updates towards the success of the program have dwindled however since its launch.

The topic of the future population growth for Prince Rupert made for some discussion as part of Prince Rupert Port Authority presentation to City Council in December.

Notable from the exchange between Port officials and city councillors, is that it seems that the pencil sharpening on population forecasts has already taken place.

The data projection from the provincial agency will be a valuable tool for both City Hall and School District planning for the years ahead. 

For the city areas such as housing and commercial development and infrastructure timelines could be impacted by reduced expectations,  while the School District will have to factor in how the new numbers related to potential enrolment numbers.

As well with a lower than anticipated in-migration, it also would bring a lower than expected tax base, which will make for future themes for discussion at Budget making time.

Provincially the population estimates will likely help shape plans for health care an other government services for the Prince Rupert area.

More notes on Council themes can be reviewed here.

Items of note from the provincial scene can be explored here.

Cross posted from the North Coast Review.