Latest polling for Northwest BC indicates a change could be coming to Skeena-Bulkley Valley with the next Federal election

The majority of polling so far this summer has made for 
some worrying moments for the Federal Liberals, while the
Conservatives have seen a significant spike in support

It's certainly been a summer of concern for the Federal Liberals, with discontent across the land driving down once impressive polling results, and while the polls have been somewhat all over the map of late, the consensus for the moment is ... 

Should an election be called today, the Conservatives would be on the way to a possible majority government.

Now, the next election is not scheduled until October 20, 2025, and with the polls as they are, the idea that the Prime Minister might take a plunge into an election campaign seems unlikely to say the least at the moment.

However, if one were to come this fall, the latest results from 338 Canada suggest that the riding of Skeena-Bulklely Valley would be changing colours from the current Orange, to the rising tide of Blue.

The 338 Canada page for Skeena-Bulkley Valley digs a little deeper into their data, indicating a decline in the popular vote projection for the incumbent NDP MP Taylor Bachrach, which suggests a 96% likelihood of the Conservatives winning the riding, that marks a 4 percent gain from the previous update.

And that's without the Conservatives even having a declared candidate ready to run in the Northwest. 

Of the list of polls from recent days, only one seems to offer a more welcome result for the Liberals and NDP candidates, that a Nanos poll released on Monday that shows the political race significantly closer than the others have indcicated.

As the election campaign is seemingly still a fair bit off, that does provide some reassurance for the NDP side that while there is clearly some work to be done on their message making, Taylor Bachrach can bring that gap down to try to  hold onto a long time NDP stronghold.

Though should the Conservatives come up with a candidate that will gain wider appeal, then the riding is clearly in play and there for a gain.

And nothing like the prospect of wining, does more to stoke the interest for a number of would be candidates to take the plunge into a political campaign.

In recent months there have been some calls for Skeena MLA Ellis Ross to make a switch to the federal scene, something he's not really spoken towards so far.

However, a look at his themes from his time inside the Legislature and outside of politics would suggest he'd be a wise choice for the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to consider, particularly with an apparent appetite for change in the wind in the Northwest. 

That as many of the Ross views on energy and other resource development, amongst many topics, are seemingly in sync with the Federal party outlook.

For the moment, Mr. Ross has his own health issues to attend to, having suffered a number of injuries and the impact of a concussion from a recent biking accident. 

So long term political planning is probably not be on his to do list just now.

Residents of Skeena Bulkley Valley may learn more about what the Federal party has in mind next week, that as  Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre  is set to host a rally in Terrace on September 14th.

While it's still far too early for planning out a campaign, the prospect of a Ross/Bachrach battle for the riding is one that will be worth watching.  It would be the kind of regional contest, that would likely capture some national attention as well,  should the current polling hold strong closer to whenever we go to the polls.

For now you can follow their respective work from our House of Commons Archive page and that from the Legislature.

Cross posted from the North Coast Review.