An election called in the heat of the summer will come to an end with the cool breeze (and rains) of the autumn (though election day itself is offering a promising forecast).
The change of seasons provides bookends to a near three month marathon of conflicting polls nationally and a string of election forums stretching across the great expanse that makes up the Skeena-Bulkley Vally riding.
When 7 PM rolls around tomorrow night, the voters of the Northwest will have either confirmed the anticipated return of MP Nathan Cullen to the House of Commons, or should the unexpected develop, will send a significant seismic shake from the Northwest all the way to Ottawa, with the delivery of a new MP for the northwestern corner of British Columbia.
The latter however seems a tad unlikely, at least if most indications hold correct.
For the most part, Mr. Cullen has run a fairly steady campaign, covering many of the themes that has provided him with support through the last decade. And while his challengers have offered up some interesting counter points to his approach to the riding and its future, it would surely be a major political story in Canada should voters across the region in the end remove Mr. Cullen from the national picture following tomorrow's vote.
The most recent projections put together by threehundredeightcom (a portal which probably will require a name change following Monday's vote, 338.com?) show the shift in the dynamic on the national scene over the last few weeks.
With surging support for the Liberals on the national count, while the NDP has steadily seen its support drop off in many previous strongholds from 2011. The Conservatives as well find themselves in a pitched battle in many of the battleground areas, should they wish to retain much of their House of Commons totals prior to August 2nd.
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| Final National projections from threehundredeight.com |
When it comes to the Northwest, the election portal shows the anticipated vote intention remains with the incumbent. With Mr. Cullen remaining in the high fifties as of the most recent and final review of the weekend.
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| The final vote projection for Skeena-Bulkley Valley from threehundredeight.com |
The projections from the final review, show some slight slippage for the incumbent down from the low sixties of late September. The incremental gains divided it seems between the Conservative candidate Mr. Nesbitt, and the Liberal's Brad Layton.
How his competitors fare on Monday when the votes are tabulated, will be worth watching as the returns come in. While victory still seems the longest of long shots, should there be some growth from years past, it could serve as a bit of notice that the NDP's hold on the riding is something that could one day be challenged.
Also of note fro tomorrow's returns will be how the vote of Monday shapes up compared to the results of 2011, with your benchmarks for the party votes as follows:
Nathan Cullen -- NDP -- 19,431 ( 55%)
Clay Harmon -- Conservative --12,555 -- (35%)
Kyle Warwick -- Liberal -- 1,266 (4%)
Roger Benham -- Green --1,098 (3%)
Rod Taylor -- CHP -- 1,044 (2.5%)
Maggie Braun -- CAP -- 164 (0.5%)
The current trends throughout the campaign suggest that there may be some shifting in those results of four years ago, with Mr. Cullen's opponents hoping to best the results posted of four years ago.
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| The Map of B. C. highlights dramatically the split in voting indications in the province (from threehundredeight.com) |
Vancouver however is a totally different story, there it will be a fascinating evening of election return watching, with the Liberals looking to make some major inroads in the heavily urbanized regions of the Lower Mainland, with the NDP strong in its traditional riding's of Vancouver, while the Conservatives look to hold on to the suburban regions and on into the Fraser Valley.
As we head towards election day on Monday you can review some of the past items of interest through a number of options from the blog and our companion portal D'arcy McGee.
For the overview of the campaign from the Northwest see our North Coast Review archive page here.
From the monthly news digest, you'll be able to track back through the campaign, from our original notes on the local forum and campaign planning, to items from across the region to give you the wider scope of what was taking place in Skeena-BulkleyValley.
As well, on the D'arcy McGee pages we have been offering up the headlines of the campaign an other items through our archive pages there, the National talking points and those of British Columbia can be reviewed from our listings at the bottom of that page.
Of interest over the weekend has been the tradition of editorials from the major newspapers across the country, which this year offers up the interesting paradox of an editorial view supporting the current government, while a large majority of the columnists and correspondents offer up a dissenting opinion.
You can review those contributions to the final weekend of the campaign here.
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| The Jim Ciccone Civic Centre is Prince Rupert's Voting booth for the 2015 Election |
For the remainder of the Northwest check this helpful link from Elections Canada to find out where your community voting place can be found.
As well, the Elections Canada website provides a wealth of information for those about to cast their vote, take some time to review what they have to offer.
Most importantly though, just get out and vote.
Be sure to take the time (if you aren't one of the over 8,000 residents to have already done so in an advance poll) and cast your ballot on Monday, it's your right and duty as a citizen to take part in the process and democracy is stronger with your participation.
On election day, we should put aside the cynicism that sometimes colours our political views, explore the issues, take your notes and deliver your verdict as to how the Canada of Tuesday morning should look.
Whether you want change or the status quo, if you don't take the time to vote, your wasting the one opportunity to make your opinion count.
Cross posted from the North Coast Review
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