Friday, March 31, 2017

Sauder School of Business Election Prediction Market suggests a political cliffhanger is in the making for May

It's still somewhat early in the current provincial election campaign, but if a recent report from Prediction Market at the Sauder School of Business at UBC is an indication, we may all be waiting long into the night for a final outcome of this May's vote.

The mid March forecast from the Prediction market delivered the following review:

The BC Liberals have a slight edge over the NDP in the Prediction Markets. However, the markets also indicate a possibility that the Green Party may gain seats and even has a small chance of holding the balance of power.

The prospect of the Green Party playing the role of King or Queen maker come May 9th, is certainly a theme that will spark some interest as things head towards election day.

It's a theme that may also help to generate some momentum on the North Coast for the campaign of Hondo Arendt, the newest Green candidate in this years election campaign who entered the race last week.

One of the more interesting currents to watch as we get closer to casting our ballot will be how his message resonates in the camps for the NDP and the Liberals, with the Green Party offering a very different outlook on how BC should be governed compared to the more traditional parties.

The introduction of a third option for voters to consider could offer up a significant shift to the ebb and flow of voter intentions from week to week as part of the march towards May 9th.

How many North Coast residents are willing to put their wallets and purses where there votes may go isn't known to this point, with no breakdown available as to the geography of participation in the Sauder Market.

For the 2017 campaign The Sauder School is hosting three Prediction markets, the Prospectus for each and most recent charts exploring the current trends can be reviewed below:

Majority Government     Prospectus 
 Seats Share                      Prospectus 
Popular Vote Share         Prospectus 

Operated on a not-for profit basis, the investment options are available to Canadian residents over the age of 19, the minimum investment is 25 dollars with a maximum of 1,000 dollars allowed per person.

Those who predict the outcome of the provincial election reap the financial reward once the polls close on May 9th and the vote totals are finalized.

The project is an exercise designed to explore and explain how futures trading works and has been fairly accurate in recent years when it comes to political trends, based on a highly motivated and engaged pool of participants.

UBC Sauder Associate Professor Werner Antweiler, the developer of the market outlined why the market participants seem to have their finger on the pulse of the election cycle so often.

"In previous election markets, traders seemed particularly adept at predicting seat distributions. This could be due, in part, to investors crowdsourcing information from multiple sources such as debates, news coverage, polls and pundits"

You can find out more about what the Sauter School of Business Prediction Market is all about here, those looking to make an investment in the election campaign, can invest in the political stock offerings and then wait until May 9th to see if those stocks deliver a political shock.

For more notes on the North Coast election campaign see our North Coast Votes Archive.

A larger overview of items of interest from the election on a province wide basis can be found over on our archive pages

Cross posted from the North Coast Review

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