Saturday, August 4, 2012

Will there be a cure for Jean Charest's summertime bleus?

I'm gonna raise a fuss, I'm gonna raise a holler
About workin' all summer just to try to earn a dollar...
Sometimes I wonder what I'm a gonna do
But there ain't no cure for the summertime blues

Eddie Cochrane's Summertime Blues

Jean Charest has dropped the writ and yet another battle for the hearts, minds and votes of Quebec is underway. The Premier of Quebec, seeking to secure another term, in Quebec City, his fourth if success is his, adding some more years on his resume since he assumed the Office of the Premier in 2003.

The baggage however this time around is a little heavy for Charest, his government provides all the telltale traits of a tired government, running out of answers and weighed down by some of its past history.

The corruption inquiry over the last year, not exactly providing for a ringing endorsement of good governance in the province, the tuition battles with students in the spring offering up street battles and perceptions of near anarchy.

Montreal Gazette-- Quebec 2012 election: The cult of personality
Montreal Gazette-- Timing of Duchesneau announcement will be key
Montreal Gazette-- Here's a gold medal guide to Quebec summer games
National Post-- 'Abrasive' whistleblower takes anti-corruption fight to Quebec election
National Post-- Student protestors target Quebec Liberals as provincial election kicks off
Toronto Star-- Quebec voters unimpressed by political choices
Toronto Star-- CAQ's Francois Legault could be game changer in Quebec election
Toronto Star-- Quebec election timing won't be more auspicious for Liberals
Globe and Mail-- Student unrest an election tinderbox in Quebec
Globe and Mail-- Charest needs to address the elephant in the room
Globe and Mail-- Jacques Duchesneau's candidacy changes Quebec political game
Globe and Mail-- The Quebec Diaries: Why daycare trumps the economy

Whether those issues and a few others come back to scupper Charest's bid for a return to office will provide for the talking points until the September 4th polling day.

And yet, once again and seemingly ever more, the question of Quebec's place in Confederation will once again prove to be the underlying theme of the campaign, as PQ leader Pauline Marois currently leading in the polls (all be it by the slimmest of margins) seeks to fan those embers of the past, taking the cloak of Levesque and Bouchard to try to stir up common cause for the ancient cause.

Not that we would suggest Madame Marois has the same political CV as those patron saints of would be nation building.

Montreal Gazette-- Duceppe and Marois teaming up for the first time
Montreal Gazette-- Parti Quebecois leader Pauline Marois says 'non' to English language debate
National Post-- PQ hopes taking harder line will open back door to separatism
National Post-- PQ goes all-in on student movement as protest leader to run for party
National Post-- Parti Quebecois promises to scrap Jean Charest's tuition hike plan if elected
National Post-- No red square for former Quebec student leader Leo Burea-Blouin...
National Post-- The PQ intends to demand money and foster resentment? No kidding
Globe and Mail-- Pauline Marois has much to prove in second campaign as PQ leader
Globe and Mail-- Francophone support gives Parti Quebecois the edge
Globe and Mail-- PQ to student protestors: Truce is best way to derail Charest
Globe and Mail-- Parti Quebecois takes the lead ahead of election: poll

The separatism issue may in the end be the one wedge issue for Charest that can provide him with victory. Charest will be making the economic argument that he best can handle the provinces finances in trying economic times. Building on his leadership and relationships with the other Canadian Premiers and with Ottawa.

The PQ, which seem anxious to return to the days of brinkmanship, perhaps could take a look at the larger world economic picture these days, a scenario that perhaps is not the best climate for the wishes of creating an independent land.

But those ancient dreams die hard and for now, the lines are being created and Quebec's voters will once again seemingly be asked to decide if they wish to go through another era of uncertainty, leading up to yet another referendum battle.

A potential wild card into the campaign is the emergence of the Coalition Avenir Quebec, though the election still has the traits of a two horse race to the finish line, with the CAQ but a trailing pony at this time.

Charest we imagine is banking his political capital on the thought that they will forgive his government's troubled past of late and stick with the path of calm and hopefully financial growth.

Montreal Gazette-- Charest calls on every Quebecer to vote on Sept. 4
National Post-- Jean Charest tries to strike dear of referendum into hearts of Angolophone voters
National Post-- Quebec Liberals hope fright factor will scare up one more mandate
National Post-- Jean Charest hangs his his re-election hopes on Quebec's 'silent majority'
National Post-- Jean Charest's Liberals are better than the alternative
National Post-- Charest begins campaign with an edge over splintered, mediocre opposition
Toronto Star-- Sherbrooke will be ground zero in Charest's battle to remain Quebec premier
Globe and Mail-- Charest unveils plan to create 250,000 jobs in Quebec
Globe and Mail-- Charest calls for 'silent majority' support ahead of Sept. 4 election
Globe and Mail-- Charest tells voters to head to polls to avoid referendum
Globe and Mail-- Charest is his own broken record, or is it cassette tape?
Globe and Mail-- Charest vows to protect Rona as Quebec election looms
Globe and Mail-- Seeking fourth term, Charest brings federalism to the fore

Perhaps the most worrisome thing for the federalist side of Canada's never ending political debate, is that at the moment, there doesn't appear to be anyone else to pick up the Federalist torch in the province, the bench strength if you will, grows pretty slim after we look past Mr. Charest.

It's to that dynamic, one where the head of a tired government with the whiff of corruption still in the wind is the best option for most Canadians, that the Quebec election will unfold.

Once again as the Quebecois head to the polls, the ramifications on the larger federation loom large upon the electoral returns.

Toronto Star-- PQ Victory in Quebec election will blow up Ottawa's status quo
Toronto Star-- PQ candidate Jean-Francois Lisee says Conservatives paving way for referendum
National Post-- Equalization tensions could 'destroy unity' in Canada: Ex Bank of Canada Chief David Dodge
Globe and Mail-- The Pequistes don't scare Canada now

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Barbs across the border

Tis a political power play with a plot that has more directions than Shakespeare's Midsummer Night's Dream and it is playing out this summer on a Western Canadian tour.

In the midst of the hottest months of the year, the political temperature between British Columbia and Alberta is rising quickly, with the topic of the contentious (well contentious in parts of BC) Northern Gateway pipeline the lightning strike that occasionally sets the political land afire.

The pipeline discussion came to a boil over the last two weeks or so, once BC Premier Christy Clark had finally climbed down off the political fence and offered an opinion on the potential fate of the northern pipeline that would bring bitumen from the Tar Sands to Kitimat and off to Asian markets.

Clark, after a seriously funny mystery session (shhh! don't tell anyone she was here) with Alberta Premier Alison Redford, came out with a declaration that not one drop of Alberta's resource would cross into British Columbia, unless the terms of transportation (and for some (hello Premier Redford) Confederation) were revised to better benefit British Columbia.

Even with such a discussion on the topic, it's perhaps no sure slam dunk that the pipeline makes it to terminal in Kitimat, such is the collective of protest that seems to be standing in the way.

But before we even get to that point, there is the brewing battle between the two resource giants of the Western half of the Federation, British Columbia by way of Premier Clark suggesting that since the province is taking the majority of the risk with the pipeline, then the share of the lucre should be better slanted towards the province.

For good measure Premier Clark provided the Globe an Mail with an Op-Ed piece outlining her thoughts on a National Energy strategy and its impact on B. C.

Alberta for its part and backed by more than a few national observers, says that any attempt to make a grab on oil and gas royalties from the province, makes for a nasty little precedent in Confederation, one which would not be particularly well received in Wildrose country.

Madam Clark, currently the leader of a rather tired and increasingly unpopular government, has latched onto a topic that may give her some political traction for the short term, perhaps enough to cobble together a strategy to win next year's provincial election.

To be seen as playing up to BC's interests is always a game winner in the province, though taking on a fellow premier and risking a change to the dynamic of Confederation's long held provincial rights could pose problems further down the road for any BC Premier.

Still, she seems willing to kick that can down the road for the short term, anxious to change the news cycle from her leadership woes and sliding popularity.

Of course, should Adrian Dix and the NDP take charge of the province next spring, the pipeline debate may prove moot, the strength of the NDP is among those perhaps more inclined to a banning of pipelines, offshore drilling and all of those other environmentally dangerous things.

It's a theme that in Alberta's case isn't helped particularly by the folks at Enbridge, who haven't exactly won the day in public relations as their other pipeline holdings spring leaks and their response to such leaks is described as "keystone kops like", not the image you imagine anyone would want to have with such an environmentally sensitive topic.

The window for moving the pipeline forward may be closing quicker than anyone thinks, leaving Alberta to either seek redress to the Federal Government to declare a national interest stake to move the project forward.

Or to find alternative ways to move its product out of the province, perhaps even bypassing British Columbia, or at least in the laying a pipeline across the northern half of it.

Makes for a fascinating string of dominoes to watch, one toppling into the other with no particular direction yet in place.

The summer season of political theatre continues on into August, here's the preamble to  the show.

Vancouver Sun-- Christy Clark wants a bigger piece of the pipeline pie for B. C
Vancouver Sun-- Clark's approach to pipeline 'smart': former minister
Vancouver Sun-- Oil pipeline looks dead and buried
Vancouver Province-- Has Clark finally struck oil?
Vancouver Province-- Polls show Christy Clark's tough stance over Enbridge pipeline strikes a chord..
Vancouver Province-- Northern Gateway pipelines fuels war or words between B. C. and Alberta
Vancouver Province-- Alberta-B. C. brawl threatens to derail talks on national energy strategy
Vancouver Province-- B. C. government sets conditions, asks for 'fair share' of profits ...
Vancouver Province-- Northern Gateway pipeline a 'very large risk' with 'very small benefit'...
Victoria Times Colonist-- Clark's stance a huge gamble
Vancouver Courier-- Clark tiff with Redford a PR ploy
The Tyee-- Christy Clark's Pipeline Poker Bluff
The Tyee-- Christy Clark's Wrong Way Walkout
The Tyee-- Is Enbridge's fate tied to Gateway? New analysis suggests otherwise.
The Tyee-- Premier Clark derails bid to forge national energy strategy
Calgary Herald-- B. C. Premier Christy Clark's Alberta shakedown
Calgary Herald-- B. C. can't be allowed to hold up pipeline
Calgary Herald-- High stakes rest on pipeline rumble between B. C., Alberta
Calgary Herald-- Only B. C.'s premier wants to talk about Alberta royalties
Calgary Herald-- Clark's "fair share" a red flag in Alberta
Calgary Herald-- Redford so wrong about national energy strategy
Calgary Herald-- Redford says she won't 'blink on royalties with B. C.
Calgary Herald-- B. C. can be compensated in other ways, experts say
Edmonton Journal--  Pipeline War with Alberta escalates as B. C. adds Trans Mountain ...
Edmonton Journal-- Prime Minister Harper trying to stay far away from Northern Gateway dispute
Edmonton Journal-- Gateway is bad news
Edmonton Sun-- 'Energy strategy' needs attitude
Edmonton Sun-- Premiers back Alberta
Edmonton Sun-- Clark's tactic is pure diversion
National Post-- For Canada's sake, Alberta must refuse Christy Clark's pipeline demand
National Post-- Christy Clark's Northern Gateway demands just another extortion attempt
National Post-- Christy Clark's Gateway revenue grab is good for B. C., disastrous for Canada
National Post--  B. C. Premier Christy Clark calls on Ottawa, Alberta to resolve Northern Gateway feud
National Post-- Too much heat, too little light in talk of a "national energy strategy"
Globe and Mail-- Only Harper can end pipeline politicking
Globe and Mail-- Leave Alberta out of B. C.'s pipeline demands: Redford
Globe and Mail--  Proposed pipelines all risk, little reward for B. C.: report
Globe and Mail-- B. C. Natives willing to 'go to the wall' against Enbridge pipeline
CTV-- B. C. Premier Christy Clark derails attempt to forge national energy strategy
CBC-- B. C. seeks 'fair share' in new Gateway pipeline deal
CBC-- B. C., Alberta premiers clash over Gateway pipeline revenue
CBC-- Premier saves some fighting words for Ottawa
CBC-- Pipeline tensions
CBC-- Premier Clark's pipeline walkout provokes B. C. reaction
CBC-- Christy Clark talks pipelines from Halifax
CBC-- Clark says no national energy policy without